flatten the curve Archives - Amazing Health Advances

US Coronavirus Measures Are Justified, University of Wyoming Economists Find

AHA Publisher — Wed, 15 Apr 2020 07:00:30 +0000

University of Wyoming via EurekAlert – Aggressive social distancing policies being used to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 are hammering the U.S. economy, but an analysis by University of Wyoming researchers suggests that these measures are economically justified. The potential benefits of social distancing in saving lives far outweigh the projected damage to the economy, according to the economists from the Department of Economics in the UW College of Business. The team’s research, which has received widespread attention in national and international media outlets, will appear in the Journal of Benefit Cost Analysis. “Our benefit-cost analysis shows that the extensive social distancing measures being adopted in the U.S. likely do not constitute an overreaction,” says Assistant Professor Linda Thunstrom, lead author of the article. “Social distancing saves lives but comes at large costs to society due to reduced economic activity. Still, based on our benchmark assumptions, the economic benefits of lives saved substantially outweigh the value of the projected losses to the U.S. economy.” In fact, assuming that social distancing measures are adopted widely enough to substantially reduce contacts among individuals, the benefits of those policies will outweigh the economic costs by $5.2 trillion, the economists found. Joining Thunstrom in conducting the analysis were Assistant Professor Stephen Newbold, Professors David Finnoff and Jason Shogren, and graduate student Madison Ashworth. The team used the most up-to-date information on disease spread and effects on economic activity to conduct the analysis. “It should be possible to conduct a more detailed analysis after more data are available,” Newbold says. “But a rapid assessment, based on the best currently available information, adds much-needed rigor to the public discussion about the policy response to this outbreak.” Attempts to slow the rate of COVID-19 infections have led many governments around the world to issue unprecedented public policies and guidelines to increase social distance within and across countries. Those measures include closing schools and businesses, imposing broad travel restrictions, and urging citizens to avoid gatherings of 10 or more people. A recent forecast by Goldman Sachs predicts that these actions will cause the nation’s gross domestic product to shrink by more than 6 percent this year, even with substantial government stimulus efforts. Already, the country is seeing declines in economic activity and dramatic increases in unemployment, with a particular impact on vulnerable low-income workers. The UW economists’ analysis takes into account the potential impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. health care system. Based on previous studies by other researchers, they estimate that the current social distancing measures across the country will reduce the average contact rate among individuals by 38 percent, which reduces the peak of the infection curve by more than half. This would help to avoid overwhelming the health care system and keep the mortality rate lower than the worst-case scenarios. The economists note that their analysis doesn’t examine the impacts of social distancing policies on specific segments of the U.S. population. “It stands to reason that the most vulnerable groups in society will be the hardest hit. For example, the service industry will be disproportionately affected by these policies, which will lead to mass layoffs of low-income workers,” the researchers wrote. “It also is likely that the most economically disadvantaged groups will suffer the most severe adverse health consequences from COVID-19.” In theory, the disparate impact of the epidemic and social distancing measures could be addressed “with appropriate redistributions of resources,” they wrote. The analysis also doesn’t consider how the current social distancing measures might affect the probability of a second wave of COVID-19 infections. “Instead, we implicitly assume that aggressive social distancing measures buy enough time to develop and distribute cost-effective COVID-19 treatments or vaccines, should a second wave occur,” the economists wrote. In the end, it is in the nation’s interest to better prepare for outbreaks such as COVID-19, they say. “Our analysis suggests that the aggressive social distancing policies currently promoted in the U.S. probably are justified, given that no good contingency plans were in place for an epidemic of this magnitude,” they wrote. “But the costs and consequences will be painful. To avoid these in the future, there are likely large social benefits to ensuring that we are better prepared for the next pandemic.” To read the original article click here.

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Do’s and Don’ts of Fabric COVID-19 Masks and Gloves

AHA Publisher — Wed, 15 Apr 2020 07:00:26 +0000

Dr. Don Colbert – Face masks are now recommended to the general public by the CDC to slow the spread of COVID-19. But, it’s extremely important that they are worn correctly and that social distancing is not ignored while masks are on. Here are the do’s and don’t of COVID-19 masks and gloves. Make sure you’re doing it right to keep yourself and your family safe. Why Wear Masks? As you know the COVID-19 Coronavirus is a novel virus, and we humans do not have immunity to it. This makes it much different than the seasonal flu or other coronaviruses that were not novel. As you know the COVID-19 Coronavirus is a novel virus, and we humans do not have immunity to it. This makes it much different than the seasonal flu or other coronaviruses that were not novel. We now know that COVID-19 is extremely contagious and spreads incredibly fast. The main cause of spread is through airborne droplets, either directly spewed onto us or those lingering in the air. COVID-19 can also be encountered on surfaces and spread to our hands, faces, and bodies. In addition, we also know that COVID-19 is being spread by asymptomatic people. Some individuals simply do not display symptoms, or have very mild symptoms, even when they are infected with COVID-19. Without everyone taking precautions, we simply won’t know who has the virus and who doesn’t until we can all be tested. How Masks Slow the Spread of COVID-19 COVID-19 masks create a barrier to stop, or at least reduce the number of droplets that exit one body from a cough, sneeze, or even talking. In fact, a study from Hong Kong and the University of Maryland found that simple surgical masks, even those that didn’t fit particularly well, blocked 100% of viral droplets and some aerosol particles from infected individuals (compared to when they were not wearing masks). Their 111 participants were infected with influenza, rhinovirus, and mild coronaviruses). When the participant didn’t wear a mask and exhaled, contagious droplets lingered in the air 30% of the time (1). However, since our health care workers desperately need all the surgical masks they can get, the public has resorted to fabric masks. But, do they work? And, what can you do to make them as effective as possible? Do Cloth COVID-19 Masks Work? Studies on different airborne illnesses have found that fabric offers little protection. However, a little protection is still better than no protection IF other recommendations are still followed. One report from 2013 found that surgical masks were 3 times more effective than fabric at stocking the spread of viruses (2). Another study found concluded the same and found that fabric was somewhat effective, even if 3 times less than surgical (3). Why is fabric less protective? Fabric is more porous and allows more droplets through than surgical mask material. What’s more, it can actually “hold” the moisture of a cough or sneeze to you. This may actually be slightly advantageous though, as the droplets are “held” rather than spewed forward, at least slightly decreasing the potential transmission. Most experts agree that fabric masks have the potential to reduce outgoing germs, even if they aren’t effective at stopping incoming germs as well. If everyone wears masks and slows outgoing germs, as a whole, they can be effective. Make Cloth COVID-19 Masks More Effective There are a few ways to make your masks, and wearing them, more effective. Use 2 pieces of fabric sewn together, rather than one layer, for a mask. Do your best to make a mask that is tight-fitting over your mouth and nose. Use heavy cotton or flannel rather than a more breathable fabric to reduce pore size. Avoid touching your face – remove your mask from the back of your head after washing or sanitizing your hands. Wash your mask in hot water, in a washing machine after every excursion into the public if possible. If able to steam clean it in your machine, this can be effective for sterilization (4). When in public, sanitize your hands before and after leaving your car, every time. Continue to social distance at least 6+ feet from others when in public. Continue to stay home as much as possible. If you are sick or showing symptoms, stay home if possible. If you are at high risk for severe COVID-19 symptoms, stay home if possible. Should You Wear Gloves? Gloves are only effective at slowing the spread of the virus when removed and discarded after every surfaced touched. Otherwise, they can spread the virus to your face or other surfaces the same as your hands. If they are thrown away after every pubic surface and/or person encounter, they are effective. If not, you will likely slow the spread more effectively by santizing your hands after every public surface encounter. organisms isolated from coughs of healthy volunteers wearing their homemade mask, a surgical mask, or no mask was compared using several air-sampling techniques. Bottom Line Collectively, fabric COVID-19 masks can slow the spread of COVID-19 in the public from both asymptomatic and symptomatic carriers by reducing outgoing germs. They are not as effective as surgical masks, though, and those at high risk of severe COVID-19 should still stay home if possible to reduce the risk of infection (as should those with COVID-19 or symptoms). In addition, all recommendations for not touching your face, staying home, and social distancing should still be adhered to, whether wearing a mask or not. Frequent handwashing, and santizing hands before and after all public encounters can also reduce infection. To read the original article click here. For more information from Dr. Colbert click here.

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